Poland: Presidential election result poses serious risks to rule of law restoration and sends troubling signal for Europe

03/06/2025
Statement
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Jaap Arriens / NurPhoto / NurPhoto via AFP

In a closely contested presidential runoff, the victory of Karol Nawrocki, backed by the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party, raises serious concerns about the future of democratic reform and rule of law in Poland. Less than two years after a pivotal parliamentary shift towards liberal governance, the election result threatens to stall –if not reverse– the fragile progress made so far.

Paris, 2 June 2025. The International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH) expresses concern over the outcome of the second round of Poland’s presidential election, held on Sunday, which resulted in the victory of Karol Nawrocki, the candidate backed by the conservative Law and Justice (Prawo i Sprawiedliwość - PiS) party.

Nawrocki secured 50.89% of the vote, narrowly defeating liberal Warsaw Mayor and Civic Platform candidate Rafał Trzaskowski, who received 49.11%. This result follows a tense election campaign whose outcome remained uncertain until the very last moment.

Although the rule of law featured less prominently in this year’s campaign than in previous electoral cycles, the implications of the result for Poland’s already fragile democratic restoration process are likely to be far-reaching. Both candidates focused their campaigns on social and economic issues, with limited public debate on the structural reforms still needed to rebuild democratic institutions. In this context, opportunities to reaffirm the rule of law as a central electoral priority may have been missed, despite its critical importance to Poland’s ongoing democratic restoration efforts.

This election comes less than two years after the October 2023 parliamentary vote, which had raised hopes in Poland and Europe that the country could reverse the severe democratic backsliding experienced during eight years of ultra-conservative, anti-European PiS rule. The Civic Platform-led coalition government committed to restoring judicial independence, rebuilding democratic institutions, and realigning Poland with European values and international human rights obligations.

However, progress since October 2023 has been slow and fraught with obstacles, notably the repeated use of presidential vetoes by outgoing PiS-aligned President Andrzej Duda, which blocked key legislative reforms by referring them to the politically compromised Constitutional Tribunal. While President-elect Nawrocki’s political alignment raises legitimate concerns, he now has an opportunity to depart from his predecessor’s obstructive legacy and demonstrate a commitment to democratic principles and institutional balance.

"This election result is a stark reminder that the road to democratic recovery is neither linear nor guaranteed", said Elena Crespi, FIDH’s Europe Programme Director. "What happens in Poland matters for all of Europe — especially as we witness a broader trend of rising authoritarianism and far-right influence across the continent, which threatens long-standing rule of law principles and hard-won human rights achievements."

The Polish presidency holds significant powers in shaping legislation, overseeing judicial appointments, and steering political discourse. In the current context, this may deepen political polarisation, obstruct much-needed reforms, and further entrench institutional dysfunction. It also risks legitimising and amplifying narratives rooted in social and economic nativism, xenophobia, and anti-rights agendas.

This includes sexual and reproductive health and rights, which risk of further restrictions. Poland already has one of the most restrictive abortion regimes in Europe, which was made even more stringent following a ruling by the PiS-captured Constitutional Tribunal that scrapped one of the three grounds on which abortion is legal in October 2020, thus endangering the lives and health of women and girls in Poland. In 2024, four bills aimed at liberalizing abortion passed their first reading, signalling a potential evolution. However, none of these proposals has seen the light so far, a reflection of persistent blockages despite the current government’s pledge to restore fundamental rights. Given Nawroci’s political leaning, any further attempt to reform the law by further liberalising abortion and decriminalising abortion assistance risks facing impossible odds.

FIDH stands in full solidarity with Polish civil society, human rights defenders, and all actors committed to defending democracy and the rule of law in Poland. We call on President-elect Nawrocki to respect Poland’s constitutional and international obligations, to enable long-overdue reforms, and to break with the legacy of institutional capture and legislation that undermines fundamental rights.

"The European Union and the broader international community must remain vigilant", added Elena Crespi. "They must be ready to stand with those defending the rule of law in Poland and to respond swiftly and decisively to any attempts to reverse democratic gains or challenge core EU and international standards."

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